Probability to win
How likely a variation is to be the best performer on your goal metric, given the data collected so far.
Probability to win is the Bayesian way to read a test. Instead of a pass or fail verdict, every version gets a percentage, and the percentages across all versions add up to 100%. A variation at 92% is very likely the best of the group. One at 5% almost certainly is not.
In Elevate, a variation becomes the winner once its probability to win passes 90%, the recommended threshold, and the test has met its minimum visitors, conversions and running days. Between 75% and 90% the result is close, but not yet safe to act on.
Put it to the test on your store
Test prices, themes, pages, shipping and checkout on Shopify, then ship the winning variant.
